PLS 321 - The American Political Process

Monday 2 October 

• http://www.opensecrets.org/basics/law/index.asp 

• http://www.opensecrets.org/ 

• http://www.campaignfinancesite.org/history/financing1.html 

• http://www.brook.edu/gs/cf/debate/MF_summary.htm 

Voting (& Voting Models) In America

Voting Models - How and Why do we vote the way(s) that we do in America?  Is there a Rationale...or a Pattern?

The key(s) = get as many voters within the electorate to vote for your candidate

Population >>> VAP >>>> RV >>>LV >>>>Actual Voters!

MODELS

First - Environmental  V.  Campaign:    

ENV=The big issue(s) in society matter (The 9/11 800lb Gorilla) The Electorate is shaped by the "environment"

CAMP= Issues do not matter - a masterfully (or horribly) run campaign can turn the electorate towards your candidate ('60, '84, '92, '88)

  Second - Models created by political analysts

• CLASSICAL - Voters will review the candidates, the views of the political party (platform) in which the candidate is allied, and platform and then make the most logical choice (civics book)

     Oops - the Party (politically) that is, is over Candidate>party

Classical Model struggles

• SOCIOLOGICAL 

•     Organized Rationality

•         "A person thinks political as he is socially.  Social characteristics determine party preference." Lazarsfeld and Berleson in Elmira NY

•  

•     Three major Socioeconomic Factors

• Class -occupation, income level, soc status

• Group - religion, race, ethnic background

• Place of Residence - rural v. urban ; region of the nation

Also the first evidence in terms of how people vote...but also WHICH people vote the most consistently 

(rich > poor, nonminority > minority, non-South > South)

Currently MASSIVE SEGMENTATION of the Sociological model!

• SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICAL - Angus Campbell & others

•         Increasing complexity built into model

•         Increasing discord w American Voter - "Ignorant"

•   V. O. Key -     DO NOT DISCOUNT VOTER - they are making more careful decisions than we are giving them credit

• PERSONALITY - Style over substance (Ike, JFK)

• ISSUES                - Not as known is post-party world, party-switcher, split-ticket voter.....icky! (not classical/rational)

• PERFORMANCE   of the candidate at time of the    

•  

Dependent - Classical (Party ID and Partisanship)

V.

Responsive - issue-oriented and more focusing on immediate election (revisionism)

AND ALSO

Retrospective v. Prospective

_______________________________________

Where do YOU fit in on the political "map?" :-)

Voter Turnout                  NES Voter Turnout Prez    NES  Voter Turnout Congress

Turnout within SubGroup - Demographic and/or political

THE RATIONALE

NES Site

Election Types

• Maintaining

• Deviating

• Realigning

• Converting

Voting and Education - ZAP

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html 

http://www.exit-poll.net/ 

http://www.electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf 

Polling and Bias -Slate

APSA - Elections and Voting Behaviour

NES Voting Data

New York Times - Cook Political Report 21 Sept - 2002 Election

New York Times - 47 Most Competitive House Races

Washington Post OnPolitics - Election 2002

CNN ALL POLITICS - Senate 2002

CNN ALL POLITICS - House 2002

CNN ALL POLITICS - Governors 2002